Market Size and Potential Volume
To date PACE Nation R-PACE Data Shows:
In VA our needs in the resiliency area are for storm water measures, coastal property protection, conservation easements, and soon hurricane measures as storms are increasing in both severity and frequency.
Florida already includes hurricane resistance as resiliency and California includes seismic resiliency measures.
I have frequently prepared Market Size and Potential for Loudoun County testimony at Board of Supervisor hearings over the 10 years effort to get C-PACE going and asking for implementation assistance with R-PACE.
Loudoun County has more than 100,000 SF homes.
AC systems have a 15-year average life. Every year 1/15th or 6,700 need replacement.
If all 100,000 were all replaced at once (obsolete freon) the need could be estimated as follows:
100,000 homes at 5 tons /average system 5 Tons GT or conventional AC $12,000
5 Tons GT Loops @ $3,500/T $17,500
Solar: 25% not shaded and good orientation 7 kW @ $2,500 /kW X 25% $4,375
Misc Insulation, Duct Sealing, SunTubes, Controls, $8,000
Total $41,875
Market Potential 100,000 X $41,875 = $4,187,500,000 or $4.2 billion for Loudoun County alone. Excluding about 10 % in PACE program overhead.
This could be developed in aggregate from VA county data for average house size and adjusted based on energy calculations from Water Furnace and PV Watts output. As
geothermal and solar both share a 26% Federal Tax Credit for 2021 and 2022 dropping to 22% in 2023. Time is of the essence.
Statewide R-PACE investment need can be grossly estimated based on population ratio as follows:
Loudoun 2019 Population: 413,538; Virginia 2019 Population 8,536,000
Ratio 1:20.6
R-PACE VA INVESTMENT NEED 20.6 X $4.2 Billion or $86.5 Billion, just for R-PACE.